The Las Vegas Raiders find themselves at a critical juncture as they approach the end of the 2025 season, teetering on the brink of an 11th consecutive loss. This unfortunate streak has stripped them of victories, yet a loss against the Kansas City Chiefs could ironically yield their most significant win in nearly twenty years—a rare chance at the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
With a record of 2-14, the Raiders have not tasted victory since a 20-10 win over the Tennessee Titans on October 12. Their recent performance, culminating in a 34-10 loss to the New York Giants, marks them as the fifth team in NFL history to endure double-digit losing streaks in back-to-back seasons. Facing the Chiefs in Week 18, the Raiders could also break their franchise record for the highest number of losses in a single season.
Despite their struggles, a defeat against the Chiefs would secure the top pick in the 2026 draft for Las Vegas—their first since the 2006 season when they finished with a similar 2-14 record. However, the situation is not entirely straightforward. The New York Giants, currently holding a 3-13 record, could also contend for that coveted selection. The Giants’ victory over the Raiders in Week 17 complicates matters further; for them to grab the top pick, several conditions must align. They require a loss to the Dallas Cowboys, a Raiders win over Kansas City, and favorable outcomes from other matches involving teams like the Seahawks, Falcons, Browns, and Bears.
Given the complexity of that scenario, the Raiders are more likely to finish with the top draft pick. Should this happen, fans will undoubtedly be wary of the decisions made by management, especially considering their past choice of JaMarcus Russell in 2007— lauded as a promising player but ultimately becoming one of the most infamous draft misses in league history. After leading LSU to a Sugar Bowl victory, he entered the Draft only to have a lackluster NFL career, featuring just 31 games and 18 touchdown passes over four seasons.
This time, the expectation is for the Raiders to select the standout quarterback Fernando Mendoza from Indiana, who won the Heisman Trophy in 2025. Unlike the Giants, who have a solid quarterback in Jaxson Dart—drafted 25th overall last year—the Raiders may feel pressure to secure their future at the quarterback position.
The Giants have held the first pick on two previous occasions, missing out on talent like Y.A. Tittle and selecting other players instead. Their roster is in need of various upgrades, particularly on defense, making linebacker Arvell Reese from Ohio State a plausible target should they end up with the number one pick.
The Raiders are currently on a dismal stretch against the Chiefs, having lost five consecutive games to them and 17 of their last 20. Projections from SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team indicate that Las Vegas is unlikely to break this streak, especially with the Chiefs’ quarterback Chris Oladukon struggling in his recent appearance. The ITL model suggests a predicted score of 19-15 in favor of the Chiefs, leading to a scenario where the Raiders lock in the number one overall draft pick.
| CHANCES FOR NO. 1 OVERALL DRAFT PICK | |
| TEAM | 2026 NO. 1 PICK % |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 79.20% |
| New York Giants | 20.74% |
This weekend, as the NFL season wraps up, it will be far more than just another game for the Raiders. For fans and players alike, it’s a moment that could shift the future of a franchise in dire need of revival.
